#1001 – The Expat Files Episode 1001: Vaccine Policies, Crypto Investments, and Expatriate Experiences

Automatically transcribed from the original recording; names and wording may contain errors.

[00:00] South of the border down Mexico way That's where I fell in love when the stars above came out to play and now that I wonder Hello there all you ex-pat wannabes. I'm Johnny Mueller and you're listening to the expat files living in Latin America The show that tells you just what it's like to live work play and or retire down here in Latin America It's a mix of the good the bad the ugly and the great and it's all right here. So let's get started You know for all you guys and gals out there worried about mandatory vaccines where you're gonna have them in the States But get this just some real good news on the horizon an article that just came out yesterday I'm gonna read part of this to you coming out of Brazil's biggest newspaper and I'll translate this for you

[00:50] It says Brazil's corrupt president. Yarr Bolsonaro. Well, I stuck the corrupt part in there I mean, hey can't get sued for telling the truth. Well, maybe you can Can certainly get canceled at least up in the States. Anyway, he says he promises the COVID-19 Vaccinations will not be obligatory when they become available in Brazil And he says quote many people want the vaccine to be applied in a coercive way But there's no law here in Brazil that it provides for that By the way, he said that on Thursday in a fake book live chat with his supporters Meanwhile, it says Vice President Hamilton Murado said earlier that mass vaccinations were inevitable to fight the pandemic in Brazil But he's firmly in line with President Bolsonaro's stance about it not being mandatory

[01:40] Here's his quote. He says there's no way for government unless we live in a dictatorship to force everyone to get vaccinated Even though he said Brazil last month signed an agreement with AstraZeneca to buy 30 million doses of the vaccine The one that Astra is developing with Oxford University Then he says they have an option to buy 70 million more doses if the vaccine works Isn't that nice? He says if the vaccine works. Haha. Oh, and did you see in the news a couple of days ago? Many people in the primary testing of these so-called vaccines are getting sick and one has died I think maybe that's why they're saying it's not gonna be mandatory Oh, and here's the up-to-date vaccine facts in Latin America's most populous country Brazil

[02:27] It's a key testing ground for many vaccines And of course, they're paying people something like ten bucks ahead to get it And that's about a day's wages for many people in Brazil Meanwhile Russia is testing their vaccination. Guess where in Venezuela Figures, huh where I'm sure most people there would likely accept just a dollar a buck to be a guinea pig for the vaccine Since most of them only make about 25 or 30 bucks a month. So a buck to the guy on the street is a days wages So anyway in Brazil right now, they're testing the Oxford University slash AstraZeneca vaccine and the China Sinovac biotech vaccine as well as the Pfizer vaccine along with the bio and tech and the Johnson and Johnson's

[03:15] pharmaceutical subsidy Jensen which is also testing their vaccine in Brazil. Mmm makes you wonder How much would you take to be a vaccine guinea pig? I mean, you know, they say everyone's got his price, right? So what's my price? Well, the truth is I wouldn't take it unless somebody held a gun to my head then again Ex-pat Eddie says he'd take it but only if Congress was in session Everyone attended and someone detonated a small nuclear device over the place Not bad. Talk about killing two birds with one stone By the way, you know off and on I talk about investing in what you should do with your money You know, I'm no investment counselor or anything, but I've done Okay, thanks to the fact that I know a lot of people smarter than I am and lots of very brilliant nerds Anyway, you longtime listeners know for the past seven years or so

[04:02] I've been saying you got to get some cryptocurrency even if only one percent of your portfolio is crypto personally I recommend 10 to 25 percent, but that's only my opinion when someone asks And of course, I say never speculate meaning go in and out of crypto currencies thinking you're gonna make money leveraging it using Arbitrage or playing the usual games people play in the market and with commodities My advice when people ask buy some and hold it Just think if you'd have bought Bitcoin when I first started talking about it when it was around three to five hundred bucks You'd have made 20 to 30 times your money. Have you ever done that in the traditional markets? I doubt it That's a rarity. I never did reminds me of a story I once read about the richest guy in the world at the time John D. Rockefeller. He was the guy who founded

[04:53] In fact, he was standard oil He wasn't no way the ogre a miser people said he was in fact He used to carry in his pocket a bunch of nickels and he used to walk a lot Oh and without a single bodyguard now, we're talking about the richest guy in the world in today's money He was worth something like thirty billion dollars Anyway, he'd carry a pocket full of nickels everywhere He went and when he'd see a kid or someone at the bus stop or even an elevator He'd hand him a nickel and a nickel back then was worth slightly more than a dollar today But he wouldn't give a nickel out without saying the following He'd say remember kid this nickels a year's interest on a dollar if you had it in the bank for a year He was basically saying don't squander it because it takes a whole year to make this kind of money with a buck in the bank

[05:40] Man how things have changed, huh? And I'm bringing this up for a couple of reasons one is you don't get five percent interest anymore You get nothing and it shows that traditionally five percent return on your money Annually was pretty average. It was kind of a benchmark for a couple of hundred years That is until about the year 2008 when we had the big financial blowout now in regards to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency A five percent gain over a year is a joke In fact just last Wednesday a couple days ago Bitcoin went up a thousand dollars in one day That's ten percent in one day now, of course it goes down to everything does but over time It just goes up and up and up as more people figure out how to use it and see the utility of it Now people always ask me what's my prediction and I'm not clairvoyant

[06:29] Nobody is all I know and what I've been hearing from people smarter than I am if you have just one Bitcoin in just a couple of years that could fund your entire retirement and believe me if you're on the fence now It's your own fault because something just lit some rocket fuel under the crypto space just a couple of days ago By the way My recommendation is always stick with one of the top five unless crypto is your hobby or you happen to be a software guy And you're more of a risk taker than most Otherwise just keep it simple So then what was the big event just a couple of days ago that kick-started mass interest in crypto? Well, it's about PayPal and I go much like PayPal But PayPal has got more than 300 million users who interact with more than 20 million merchants and suppliers

[07:14] And they have just announced that they will be taking cryptocurrency payments for everything and anything you can buy with PayPal That means Amazon eBay and anything and everything you buy online Then why is this such a big deal and why it will it push? Cryptos to unheard of highs because suddenly in the new year when it kicks in a percentage of those 300 million users Who never even thought of crypto before and never knew how to get in will suddenly have that option on PayPal and there'll be a nice little Instructional video that's very simple and people who never had any interest in it before because it wasn't mainstream Well suddenly feel left out if they don't get in on it Everybody knows it's the wave of the future. It's just that not too many people are in it yet That's why right now a lot of people smarter than I am by predicting Bitcoin and the rest of the top

[08:04] Cryptocurrencies to increase within the next year or two to five or ten times their present value Now like I said, I'm no investment advisor I can only tell you what I've done and been a success or failure at it But if you don't get in for at least a little piece of it now in a year or two or even less You're gonna feel like a terrible idiot. I mean really how many big major deals Have you lost out on in your life just because you didn't pull the trigger so bottom line right now Or as of January 1st Anyway, crypto currencies are not much of a gamble anymore like they used to be not when a company like PayPal's getting into it If that's not mainstream, nothing is so my advice again Get a little of it and just sit back and watch it grow Of course the mother of all cryptos is Bitcoin, but there's a theory of and Litecoin and some of the other top ones, too

[08:53] They're all hooked up to the Bitcoin train Again, I have to repeat what I've heard from so many of my engineering software buddies They're a lot smarter than I am if you had just one Bitcoin or the equivalent in Ethereum at today's prices That's about 30 Ethereum that could very well put you on easy Street when you're ready to retire Even if you're thinking about retiring or just living off your nest egg in just a year or two again It's not financial advice It's just tips and recommendations from very smart successful people who are not part of the mainstream though Now even the mainstream financial guys who from the beginning said the crypto and Bitcoin spaces were imaginary garbage or Ponzi schemes Well, they certainly have changed their tune. They're getting on the action, too Even the big guys the big jerk scumbag financial houses like Morgan Stanley

[09:42] The guys that keep getting fined for doing illegal stuff and manipulating markets like gold and silver markets They've all got crypto trading desks now So again, you still have a chance before these things explode in the new year now Of course, there are other reasons that cryptos are gonna explode besides the fact that PayPal and some if not most of all the big Financial outfits are diving in but what it really signifies is the fact that the traditional funny money US dollar World currency reserve system is just not viable or stable anymore I mean look banks bonds and shares have to pay interest and right now because of obscene fiscal Mismanagement of the dollar most financial instruments are paying less than the inflation rate Meanwhile central banks are totally out of options. They can only do one thing

[10:30] Create more funny money dollars euros into balloons or lower interest rates because if they raise them The economy will die a fast and painful death Whereas the top cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin have a way outperform the market year-over-year and the best ones like Bitcoin have a fixed supply Unlike central bank funny money that's created with a keystroke So let's put it this way if just 10% of the PayPal users buy one Bitcoin Well, 10% of 300 million is 30 million and how many Bitcoin are there in existence 21 million? But they say there's only around 14 or 15 million Due to the fact that a lot of it was lost in the early days due to forgotten passwords and such Then there are people called whales who got in early who have tons of the stuff and will never sell

[11:19] So in other words, if just one out of ten people buys a Bitcoin on PayPal There won't be enough to go around so then what happens when there's more demand than supply prices rise Dramatically, in fact, they explode. So my advice and you don't have to take it get in now or kick yourself in the ass later So as they say you could either watch the game from the sidelines or put on a uniform and get into the game And you know in everyone's life. There are three or four critical points you look back on them and say Usually to your kids or grandkids when they ask They'll say things like what was it like in the hippie days or when the first guy landed on the moon or when Kennedy was shot What are you gonna do when they say grandma or grandpa? How come you didn't buy Amazon Tesla Apple or crypto when the stuff was ridiculously cheap?

[12:09] You knew about it. You got the word early, but you just didn't pull the trigger. Why not? Hmm. I get it though. I Know if you're not into computers software or technical stuff, you can get kind of confused by the crypto thing That's why captain mango has that crypto course for beginners You spend an hour with him on the phone Skype or whatever and he'll train you up and answer all your crypto questions He'll hand hold you through the whole process of setting up a wallet buying and selling if you learn it his way You just can't go wrong. Just send me an email the expat files of gmail.com And I'll give you the info on his course and what he offers Meanwhile back in Latin America where we belong, you know people say to me all the time Johnny when I moved down I prefer to live on the gringo trail at least for a while and they say that mostly because they don't have a network

[12:59] Of friends to bond with friends in the know who've been through it before themselves Because let's face it when people arrive They've got various degrees of boots on the ground some people with no boots on the ground They've gotten everything off the internet and man, I'm telling you if you don't have some boots on the ground You're ripe for the gringo gouge So it is a double-edged sword coming down living on the gringo tourist trail even if it is just for a while because it's always more expensive on the trail and many people get just way too Comfortable hanging around gringos and they never leave and then it's typical that they never learn enough Spanish to have a regular conversation with non-English speaking locals So in a way the longer you live on the trail the more of a trap it becomes you get stuck in a kind of Prefabricated world because you see gringos especially do-gooder gringos and people retired from government and teaching positions

[13:52] Hate to say this, but it's true They mostly all end up on the gringo tourist trail and they want to turn their new Latin Destination into a version of what they left. What a shame, huh? But you know when you confront them with that fact, they don't see it They come down to Latin America with a list of things. They didn't like about the states Then after a while because they've got a lot of time on their hands They create gringo meetup groups clubs and organizations bent on trying to improve or organize the locals So my question always is why the hell do you leave, Colorado or California? And you know, it's not enough to say don't ruin a good thing You dipshit because it seems to be the natural inclination of all groups of gringos and expats when they get together To have some kind of mission. They just have to start creating committees and planning projects bent down and proving things the gringo way

[14:42] They just can't keep their fingers out of a local scene and that's one of the main reasons I've spent maybe 95% of all the time. I've been down here off the gringo trail Sometimes I'm so far off the gringo tourist trail I don't run into a gringo or expat for weeks at a time Even if I'm in a big shopping center, and I really prefer it that way It's a great way to learn your Spanish, too Though it's not for everyone in fact the first two or three years of my life here in Latin America We're in Costa Rica where you couldn't be more on the tourist trail But what did I know way back when when I first came down all I know is in that two and a half years I saw every single one of my gringo friends and gringo is an expert I didn't even know get ripped off or they tell me stories on how they got ripped off I was lucky though

[15:28] I came really close to getting scammed and the biggest scammers of all I've found are Latin lawyers and Ex-pat gringos who've been down a while who speak Spanish and have gone slightly native But you knew that already right speaking of gringos getting ripped off I haven't told any rip-off stories for a while got this email just the other day this one is from a gringo backpacker Who's been stuck for the last couple of months during the cold video thing in Cuenca, Ecuador He says dear Johnny. I'm a constant backpacker. I know you don't put much faith in backpacking But look how else can you see the world on ten bucks a day? So what if we're not always squeaky clean who is that said if I added up my backpacking? Experiences in foreign countries I bet I spent at least six months Staying at hostels backpacker hotels and fleabag joints. I've done Central South America and some of the Caribbean islands

[16:20] I've never been threatened extorted pickpocket or robbed in any way until Just a few days ago By the way, Johnny If I was to pick a section or area that I've backpacked through that I feel I wouldn't recommend I'd have to say Jamaica as with all backpacking experiences if you're in a group No problem, but Jamaica is the only place I ever thought to myself I'd never want to backpack through this country alone though. I've not been to Venezuela I'm sure that could be a challenge for an American though I found most every backpacker I talked to who'd been through Jamaica had been robbed or extorted somehow, but not me I guess I'm just one of those good luck statistics So anyway, my life was a charm until last week in Cuenca, Ecuador We were a group of a half dozen people walking home after dark

[17:08] We were suddenly approached by a couple of children selling stuff the usual indigenous trinkets and knickknacks So we were walking along. I was the last guy in the group We got into a narrow place on the sidewalk and the kids were following us very closely You know, a lot of times you say no and they just won't give up. They keep coming at you So sometimes you just give them a quarter to get rid of them and sometimes a quarter is not enough You give a quarter to one kid. They all want one and they want one for their moms and sisters, too Normally, I'm not a suspicious person though from now on I'll be on my guard as we turn the corner through another Narrow spot the kids didn't follow and when our group got to the next corner traffic light I realized a top zipper of my bag had been opened and my cell phone was gone

[17:56] Sure, no one was hurt and I can easily replace the phone, but I'm not wearing rose-colored glasses anymore Unfortunately now it's stuck in my mind the next time I see a group of kids I'll probably instinctively clutch the zipper end of my backpack though I think the big part of the problem is that we were walking around at night I know Johnny you always say there are some cities and towns in Latin America that you could walk around at night with your wallet On your head. No one will mess with you. I found out Cuenca Ecuador is not one of those places and Hopefully and I like to think positively here. They'll take that cell phone sell it and buy some food for the family But being kids, I bet they blow it on junk food and video games That's my story Johnny and my eyes are just a little bit wider open for it. Keep up the shows Johnny

[18:43] Sergio well search that reminds me of many stories I've heard from especially Latin American girls who ride the chicken bus daily to go to university or to the job Practically every one of them has had their cell phone stolen one girl. In fact, I know had it stolen three times Which means she's probably not the sharpest machete and the tool shed So then who do you blame Allah? The fact is when you're driving in your own car or uber whatever oftentimes a chicken bus or public bus will pull up next Yeah, and you'll see people on their cell phones bad idea because chicken buses and public transportation are happy hunting grounds for Cell phone thieves and the ladies tell me if a thief doesn't just outright rip the phone out of your hand and run They'll use stealth in a crowded bus and oftentimes they're packed to the gills with people coming out of the doors

[19:30] Which means you're always pressed up against someone even these days with the COVID thing You'll rarely see social distancing sure people are wearing masks, but they're jammed in there like a pack of weenies And practically every Latino I've talked to who regularly rides the bus Had her phone stolen with a stealthy zipper pull or her bag was somehow slit with a sharp knife and she didn't even know it Now, of course some of the upscale backpack manufacturers have come up with great ways to counter that in fact one company pack safe You ever hear of them pack safe They have backpacks and purses with wire meshes built into the lining You can't see them but they're there and you cannot cut through them and they've got other special features That won't allow anyone else to open the zipper But you see those special features only come with certain high-end gear and people don't even know it exists out there

[20:19] However for you ladies, especially I say you should check out the pack safe line of women's purses They've got some very cool stuff and it's all anti theft and the purses in bags If you go on Amazon start at around 35 bucks, not bad Now I'm no connoisseur of backpacker gear, but the ladies tell me the purses and handbags are very stylish So ladies check it out This is more for you than for guys because after all the thief would rather target a woman for various reasons that the snowflake and SJW Is and cancel culture crowd are loathe to admit For example a woman's less likely to fight back or have a knife or a gun and when they do resist They're not as strong as men. It's not about fairness. It's about anatomy and muscle mass

[21:04] Is that heresy will then hang me with a tampon ripcord? By the way, when you're walking through a crowd or anticipating walking through a group of people You should never have your backpack or purse slung off your shoulder or hanging from the back Always have it in front of you and you might want to clutch it while you're walking through a crowd, too But you knew that already, right? By the way, how many guys and gals out there have ever been Pickpocketed or had your purse or backpack snatched or sliced with intent to wrap? By the way, the number one place in the world for pickpockets per capita is believe it or not I know I've mentioned this before the Vatican. In fact, all of Italy's a hot spot They've got stick man warning posters everywhere showing one stick man Pickpocketing another with the big red slash through it, you know, like a no smoking sign

[21:51] Anyway, just be aware and be on the lookout when you're traveling for sticky fingers. All right switching gears There's one thing. I know we all have in common We hate utility companies or at least hate to pay in the bills and all of us and I mean all of us would Love to get off the grid, right? That's why we always toss in a few solar tidbits here and there But man, is that solar marketplace confusing? Well, stick with me. I check all that stuff out Alright, let's take an email from el gringo sin nombre That's the gringo with no name and I suppose if he was an equestrian he'd have a horse with no name, too Man, what a song did that have some idiotic lyrics or what? Yep that group America They also had another song with probably the most confusing lyrics of all time Remember this one Oz never did give nothing to the tin man that he didn't already have

[22:40] You know at the time we thought what? But nothing and I mean nothing compares to the pure horseshit that passes these days for popular music lyrics You know America's lyrics were like Shakespeare compared to today's popular lyrics Which are more like a grade school special ed assignment, but I digress where we go. Yeah the email Thank You Johnny for all the information on solar power you've done recently Have you heard of solar pair of skates as a solar panel material that could make them even more efficient I just saw this article and thought of you and then he sent me a link. All right Thanks for that. El gringo with no name You see that's the perfect example of too much information and confusion in the solar space What he's talking about is a new material that brings solar panel efficiency up to around 30 even 40 percent

[23:28] So then what do solar panel efficiencies even mean? Well, here's the basics when the Sun is directly above there's a certain amount of calculated radiation that hits the earth And when a solar panel is let's say 20 percent efficient That means it's turning 20 percent of the total solar energy hitting it into electricity That's under ideal circumstances Just a few hours a day between let's say 10 a.m. And 2 p.m. When the Sun's high in the sky But obviously you want the most efficiency possible a hundred percent would be fabulous and we'll get close, but we'll never get there Well, I got to tell you 30 years ago solar panels were getting around 5% efficiency And today the latest model solar panels are getting around 20 to 22 percent efficiency That means 30 years ago you had have four times as many panels to get the equal amount of power out of them

[24:18] That's why I mentioned in a previous show You only need 12 of the modern solar panels Which are around 400 watts a panel to power your whole house in Latin America as long as you don't have air conditioning And if you have air conditioning, you add another 12 panels Now remember the surface area of today's modern panels being around 2 square meters That's a little over 2 square yards about 20 square feet per panel That means for your whole house, even if you have air conditioning You're only gonna need the roof space of around a two and a half car garage And since you can get those high efficiency panels for around a hundred bucks apiece these days That's twenty four hundred bucks or twelve hundred if you don't have air conditioning now in the email He talks about a certain kind of new solar panel using a new material instead of silicon called perovskites

[25:04] So if you wait a couple of years, you can get panels that have 30 even 40 percent efficiency But I say to wait is nuts The only advantage you get is that you'll be able to have half as many panels That would be six panels for a whole house and 12 panels if you've got air conditioning Oh and another six if you have an electric car, but that's another topic Anyway, again I think it's foolish even nuts to wait for any more improvements in solar panels because that's not the most expensive part of your system By any means it's the lithium batteries that cost an arm and a leg In fact, I say right now is the perfect time to buy a solar system though It's certain things are gonna get cheaper and more efficient every year But we've already reached the point where we really don't need any smaller or more efficient solar panels

[25:50] We are there already and they're cheap even the price of lithium batteries have been dropping suddenly There's all kinds of competition to the Tesla Powerwall, which was the only game in town a couple years ago So now you can get a generic Powerwall for half the price of a Tesla Powerwall and still it's pretty making them lighter Cheaper denser and more powerful. So that's where the real future gains are coming with the batteries not the panels We're already there with the panel. We're already there with the electronics, too So I think it's foolish to wait for something better or more efficient because you know That's what people who don't do a lot of research or aren't too technical always say I'll wait until they get cheaper and then I'll go solar well I'm here to tell you the electronics and the panels are already at a very cheap and affordable price point and the only thing that

[26:38] Will really take a big gouge out of your wallet are those damn lithium batteries now remember when I say Powerwall I'm referring to all the electronics and the batteries in one box or unit initially envisioned and created by Tesla And now just in the last year maybe two years at most The Chinese competitors and clones have arrived on the scene at half the price now You might be thinking oh the Chinese again But they make most all the parts for the Tesla Powerwall too and the lithium batteries for everything are all coming out of China Too and eighty to ninety percent of all the super-efficient solar panels where else China so in that respect They are in fact on the cutting edge, so whether it says Tesla or not It's made in China though of course some assemblies done in the states I know that doesn't sit well with a lot of people, but that's life

[27:27] You've been listening to the expat files living in Latin America if you need some help with your own plan B We can schedule a one-on-one phone or Skype consult Just send me an email the expat files at gmail.com And if you want to get on the waiting list for my next week-long expat Insider seminar in Central America where you're guaranteed to get a two to five year head start on your plan B Send me an email the expat files at gmail.com